There are no shortcuts to good in-depth handicapping, but there are times when a good wager stands out among the rest. That’s when you’ll find an easy bet, what some would call a no-brainer. The odds that you get on such a horse are usually low, but once in a while the pari-mutuel gods surprise us. So just how do you find these easy horse racing bets?
Start with good quality races. They say the cream rises to the top and that’s also true of good wagers. Here’s why. In low level races, especially claiming races, the horses aren’t worth much in financial terms, in other words, they’re all usually a poor investment. No one is going to take a high quality horse with a lot of ability and dump it in a cheap race. Why stand in the winner’s circle for a ten thousand claimer when you can win a handicap race?
Now let’s look at the other end of the datos hipicos americanas stick. At the top, in the graded stakes races and handicaps you will find well bred and expensive horses. It seems at first glance that they would all be so capable that it would be hard to separate them, but that isn’t always the case. In a top race you will find horses that are head and shoulders above the rest, but the owners of the other horses want a shot at winning the big stakes race so they still enter their well bred horse.
Breeding alone will not win a race, it also takes ability and skill. There are several ways to find the standout in a stakes race. Start with the money. The amount of money a horse has won in its lifetime is a direct reflection of how well it has run and the level it competed at to win that money. Averaging it out to show earnings per start is even more useful when you’re looking for the overlay.
Then there are par times, those wonderful mathematical yardsticks we use to measure the average winning times of the winners of the races. If a Grade l stakes race has a par time of 105 and only two horses in the race have hit that par at the distance on the same surface, you have two very strong candidates and all the others will have to have something very special to rate a second look.
Even though that’s the case, it’s amazing how many times a horse that hasn’t hit the par is made the favorite against other proven horses. Look for that scenario in stakes races and you’ll find some good win and place bets and horses to key in exactas. While this method can work in all races and all you have to do is scan the pars and earnings, you’ll find it works best in stakes races for older horses where the runners have hit the highest pars they will ever have hit and have established themselves and their ability.